por Pablo Ceriani Cernadas
Resumen: En los últimos años se han escuchado en América Latina fuertes críticas hacia las políticas migratorias restrictivas de los países del Norte, especialmente en ocasión de la aprobación de la Directiva de Retorno de la Unión Europea o de los abusos cometidos en los estados fronterizos del sur de Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, el análisis de la legislación migratoria latinoamericana y caribeña muestra un escenario en el que las iniciativas reformistas conviven con normas que criminalizan la migración irregular. Los cambios más alentadores se han producido en Argentina, Uruguay y Ecuador, mientras que el caso chileno, entre otros, deja en evidencia la herencia del periodo dictatorial y la Doctrina de Seguridad Nacional.
Texto completo: PDF. Publicado en Nueva Sociedad, 233, mayo-junio 2011
vendredi 24 juin 2011
Is Palocci's resignation a big setback to Dilma's Administration?
By Peter Hakim,Terry McCoy, Roberto Padovani, David FleischerLatin America Advisor, June 17, 2011
Q: Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff's cabinet chief, Antonio Palocci, resigned June 7 amid corruption accusations that he has denied. Palocci has been a key aide to Rousseff, particularly on economic policy and as an ambassador to foreign investors. How will losing Palocci affect Rousseff's administration and her ability to advance her agenda? Will his departure bring major changes to the administration's policies? How effective will Palocci's successor, Gleisi Hoffman, be in the position?
A: Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue:
"No question, aside from President Dilma herself, Antonio Palocci was the most powerful person in the Brazilian government. Selected by Lula to manage Dilma's campaign, he took over the job she once had-chief of the Casa Civil, effectively the prime minister. When the scandal broke, Dilma was dealing with two especially difficult problems. One was the specter of inflation, the bete noir of all Brazilian governments. Dilma's inclination to take a hard line on inflation and sharply cut government expenditures is opposed by many in her cabinet, including her finance minister. But she could count on Palocci, a former finance minister and fiscal disciplinarian, for critical backing. Palocci's involvement, moreover, reassured international investors. Palocci, considered the president's most skilled political operative, was seen also as vital to solving the very sensitive issue of the president's strained relations with coalition partners in congress. Palocci's departure, in short, seemed to many to leave Dilma without her star quarterback, and much weakened. But there is also a contrary view. Some argue that Dilma managed the scandal deftly, and ended up firmly establishing her governing authority. She showed this was her government by quickly replacing Palocci, widely viewed as a 'Lula ally,' with a new prime minister that was clearly her person, although without Palocci's experience or heft. She left no doubt who was in charge. And her standing in the polls rose two points. Both interpretations are correct. The government did lose an exceptionally powerful and capable minister, but it's now clearly her government."
A: Terry McCoy, director of the Latin American Business Environment Program at the University of Florida:
"The indispensable Antonio Palocci has proven dispensable once again. The first time around as finance minister, Palocci was widely credited with the package of moderate economic policies adhered to by the Lula administration and, as a result, generating investor confidence in the government of the former labor leader. At the time it seemed the one minister Lula could not afford to lose was Palocci. But when he departed in 2006 under a cloud of scandal, the government continued along its centrist path, and the markets hardly noted his departure. This time, Palocci was not only a pillar of reassurance for the private sector, but as cabinet chief the key to keeping Dilma's unruly governing coalition together in Congress. Once again Palocci's forced resignation had minimal effect on the markets. However, it remains to be seen if Gleissi Hoffman can effectively work with the congressional coalition. What is interesting about her appointment is that she is Dilma's, not Lula's, creation. When Lula reappeared in Brasilia to fight for Palocci, it looked as though Dilma was not in charge. The appointment of 'Dilma's Dilma' makes it clear who is in charge."
A: Roberto Padovani, chief economist at Banco WestLB do Brasil:
"Palocci's resignation from the government dominated the political news for the past few weeks. Unlike in the past, however, the markets reacted with indifference to the proceedings. This behavior makes sense. The experience of recent years has shown that there are strong incentives for the country to maintain the economic system. Turbulence in the financial markets tends to produce negative effects on growth and employment, which in turn affects the government's popularity. Recent political transitions have confirmed this view. And it is increasingly clear, therefore, that the direction of economic policy depends less and less on specific people. The resignation of Palocci is a new opportunity to realize that Brazil is moving forward institutionally."
A: David Fleischer, emeritus professor at the University of Brasília and editor of Brazil Focus:
"The exit of Antonio Palocci from the all powerful chief of staff position in Dilma Rousseff's government apparently weakened her position vis-à-vis foreign investors plus the international and domestic private sectors. He was seen as a bulwark against attempts to 'soften' the government's current fiscal austerity measures. However, these same sectors quickly perceived that his continuation in the government could weaken its position with Congress and perhaps have a negative impact on Brazil's macro-economic targets. With Palocci's exit, President Dilma 'lost' a lulista and appointed her own dilmista-first term PT Senator Gleisi Hoffmann from Paraná-and thus gained more political autonomy regarding former President Lula's tutelage. At the same time, she became more independent from the São Paulo PT that pressures to maintain hegemony within the party after losing space in the central government nucleus. Ms. Hoffmann will concentrate more on managing and monitoring federal programs. President Rousseff has become more involved in political articulations with Congress and state governors, assisted by former PT Senator Ideli Salvatti and Vice-President Michel Temer (PMDB). She has held several meetings with party delegations and regional groupings of governors. Also, Rousseff is attending the remaining demands by deputies and senators in her support coalition-appointments to third, fourth and fifth echelon positions as well as 'liberating' pet budget amendments. Thus, it is expected that President Rousseff will be able advance her agenda, which has several formidable challenges in the short term."
Q: Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff's cabinet chief, Antonio Palocci, resigned June 7 amid corruption accusations that he has denied. Palocci has been a key aide to Rousseff, particularly on economic policy and as an ambassador to foreign investors. How will losing Palocci affect Rousseff's administration and her ability to advance her agenda? Will his departure bring major changes to the administration's policies? How effective will Palocci's successor, Gleisi Hoffman, be in the position?
A: Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue:
"No question, aside from President Dilma herself, Antonio Palocci was the most powerful person in the Brazilian government. Selected by Lula to manage Dilma's campaign, he took over the job she once had-chief of the Casa Civil, effectively the prime minister. When the scandal broke, Dilma was dealing with two especially difficult problems. One was the specter of inflation, the bete noir of all Brazilian governments. Dilma's inclination to take a hard line on inflation and sharply cut government expenditures is opposed by many in her cabinet, including her finance minister. But she could count on Palocci, a former finance minister and fiscal disciplinarian, for critical backing. Palocci's involvement, moreover, reassured international investors. Palocci, considered the president's most skilled political operative, was seen also as vital to solving the very sensitive issue of the president's strained relations with coalition partners in congress. Palocci's departure, in short, seemed to many to leave Dilma without her star quarterback, and much weakened. But there is also a contrary view. Some argue that Dilma managed the scandal deftly, and ended up firmly establishing her governing authority. She showed this was her government by quickly replacing Palocci, widely viewed as a 'Lula ally,' with a new prime minister that was clearly her person, although without Palocci's experience or heft. She left no doubt who was in charge. And her standing in the polls rose two points. Both interpretations are correct. The government did lose an exceptionally powerful and capable minister, but it's now clearly her government."
A: Terry McCoy, director of the Latin American Business Environment Program at the University of Florida:
"The indispensable Antonio Palocci has proven dispensable once again. The first time around as finance minister, Palocci was widely credited with the package of moderate economic policies adhered to by the Lula administration and, as a result, generating investor confidence in the government of the former labor leader. At the time it seemed the one minister Lula could not afford to lose was Palocci. But when he departed in 2006 under a cloud of scandal, the government continued along its centrist path, and the markets hardly noted his departure. This time, Palocci was not only a pillar of reassurance for the private sector, but as cabinet chief the key to keeping Dilma's unruly governing coalition together in Congress. Once again Palocci's forced resignation had minimal effect on the markets. However, it remains to be seen if Gleissi Hoffman can effectively work with the congressional coalition. What is interesting about her appointment is that she is Dilma's, not Lula's, creation. When Lula reappeared in Brasilia to fight for Palocci, it looked as though Dilma was not in charge. The appointment of 'Dilma's Dilma' makes it clear who is in charge."
A: Roberto Padovani, chief economist at Banco WestLB do Brasil:
"Palocci's resignation from the government dominated the political news for the past few weeks. Unlike in the past, however, the markets reacted with indifference to the proceedings. This behavior makes sense. The experience of recent years has shown that there are strong incentives for the country to maintain the economic system. Turbulence in the financial markets tends to produce negative effects on growth and employment, which in turn affects the government's popularity. Recent political transitions have confirmed this view. And it is increasingly clear, therefore, that the direction of economic policy depends less and less on specific people. The resignation of Palocci is a new opportunity to realize that Brazil is moving forward institutionally."
A: David Fleischer, emeritus professor at the University of Brasília and editor of Brazil Focus:
"The exit of Antonio Palocci from the all powerful chief of staff position in Dilma Rousseff's government apparently weakened her position vis-à-vis foreign investors plus the international and domestic private sectors. He was seen as a bulwark against attempts to 'soften' the government's current fiscal austerity measures. However, these same sectors quickly perceived that his continuation in the government could weaken its position with Congress and perhaps have a negative impact on Brazil's macro-economic targets. With Palocci's exit, President Dilma 'lost' a lulista and appointed her own dilmista-first term PT Senator Gleisi Hoffmann from Paraná-and thus gained more political autonomy regarding former President Lula's tutelage. At the same time, she became more independent from the São Paulo PT that pressures to maintain hegemony within the party after losing space in the central government nucleus. Ms. Hoffmann will concentrate more on managing and monitoring federal programs. President Rousseff has become more involved in political articulations with Congress and state governors, assisted by former PT Senator Ideli Salvatti and Vice-President Michel Temer (PMDB). She has held several meetings with party delegations and regional groupings of governors. Also, Rousseff is attending the remaining demands by deputies and senators in her support coalition-appointments to third, fourth and fifth echelon positions as well as 'liberating' pet budget amendments. Thus, it is expected that President Rousseff will be able advance her agenda, which has several formidable challenges in the short term."
Inscription à :
Articles (Atom)
